Maybe the Tesla Miracle Already Happened

The Model Y was the peak. What's come after hasn't measured up.

Image created using ChatGPT

On May 16, Electrek published a story previewing Tesla’s highly anticipated Robotaxi Day in June. The article referenced an analysis by Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas — a longtime Tesla bull — hinting at a robotaxi rollout relying heavily on teleoperation. Yes, remote human drivers might be steering the supposed “autonomous” robotaxis.

You read that right. In a company built on the vision of AI-driven, fully autonomous vehicles, we may soon see a robotaxi demo powered by a steering wheel in a call center and limited to a small geography in Austin Texas.

If confirmed in June, this development should be jarring. But markets barely flinched. By midday on Monday May 19, Tesla shares were down just 2.5%. Its valuation? Still over $1 trillion.

How is this possible?

Tesla’s automotive business — once the envy of the industry with rapid growth and industry-leading margins — now shows clear signs of retreat. Vehicle deliveries are down year-over-year. Price cuts have eroded margins. Tesla’s product lineup is aging. And the once-golden image of the company’s superiority in EV tech is being aggressively challenged by rivals like BYD.

Even the long-hyped Cybertruck, introduced with enormous fanfare and years of anticipation, has fallen flat commercially. Sales volumes are modest, depreciation is epic, and the vehicle — more spectacle than solution — has failed to meaningfully contribute to Tesla’s bottom line or reshape the truck market.

Elon Musk tells investors to stop thinking of Tesla as a car company. Instead, he promotes a narrative where Tesla is an AI company, destined to lead a global robotaxi revolution.

But here’s the problem:

That same revolution has been promised for years. At Tesla’s Autonomy Day in 2019, Musk predicted Tesla would have 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2020. Instead, it’s 2025, and the most realistic path to “autonomy” might involve humans in remote control rooms.

This is not the first promise that’s gone unfulfilled:

• 2016: “All Teslas being built now have full self-driving hardware.”
  

• 2018: “Next year, we’ll drive across the country hands-free.”
  

• 2019: “Robotaxis coming in 2020.”
  

• 2021–2024: “Solve FSD this year.”
  

Yet none of these have materialized — and still, investors continue to believe.

Maybe the Tesla miracle already happened. What if the company’s true slam dunk wasn’t autonomy at all? Maybe the miracle was Tesla solving EV mass production with the Model 3, and creating the world’s best-selling vehicle in the Model Y in 2023? Bringing EVs to scale might have been the real breakthrough.

But since then, it’s been a string of delays, hype cycles, and strategic pivots. Meanwhile, the core automotive business — the one that built Tesla’s massive valuation — has stagnated or declined across nearly every meaningful metric.

Despite all this, Tesla remains priced as a “Magnificent 7” tech stock, with valuation logic stretched to near-religious levels.

So again, the question:

What will it really take for Tesla investors to sour on Tesla stock?

Because if disappointing delivery numbers, collapsing operating margins, teleoperated robotaxis, and a CEO repeatedly shifting the goalposts aren’t enough — maybe nothing is.

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Disclaimer:

TaaSMaster, LLC is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investment opinions expressed by TaaSMaster, LLC are from personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors may occur.